AA 540 · GEG → PHX

took off 2:08 PM PT · landed 4:10 PM MT (scheduled 1:37 PM PT → 4:26 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 540 · GEG → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?