AA 553 · PIT → PHL

departs 6:18 AM ET · arrives 7:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PIT are usually not late

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.1 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,420 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 553 · PIT → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?