AA 636 · PHX → JFK

took off 7:17 AM MT · landed 2:47 PM ET (scheduled 7:00 AM MT → 2:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 636 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?