Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today

AA 686 · PHX → SFO

departs 8:23 PM MT · arrives 10:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Odds over time

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2.9d 2d 1d Now 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SFO?

  1. On time or early
    61%
  2. 15–30 min late
    15%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    12%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    8%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.