Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 686SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AA 686 · PHX → SFO
departs 8:23 PM MT · arrives 10:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39%chance · ±2 pts+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.