AA 741 · MAD → PHL

departs 3:17 PM CEST · arrives 6:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MAD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 741 · MAD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?