AA 747 · NCE → PHL

took off 11:27 AM CEST · expected to land 1:28 PM ET (scheduled 10:23 AM CEST → 1:19 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NCE

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

NCE (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 747 · NCE → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?