AA 809 · TPA → PHL

departs 4:07 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 809 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?