AA 843 · LGA → BUF

departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 5:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 843 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?