AA 860 · BUF → LGA

departs 5:58 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 860 · BUF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?