Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 869 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 869 · MKE → DFW

departs 9:05 PM CT · arrives 11:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 869 · MKE → DFW

Odds over time