AA 95 · MAD → JFK

took off 10:32 AM CEST · expected to land 11:55 AM ET (scheduled 6:05 AM CEST → 8:06 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MAD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 95 · MAD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?