AS 1002 · HNL → ITO

departs 6:10 AM HT · arrives 7:03 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ ITO is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.43 in

ITO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1002 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?