AS 1016 · HNL → OGG

took off 6:04 AM HT · landed 6:21 AM HT (scheduled 6:00 AM HT → 6:40 AM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OGG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

OGG (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1016 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late did it get to OGG?