AS 1031 · ITO → HNL

departs 11:27 AM HT · arrives 12:22 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ 11am departures from ITO are usually not late

↓ ITO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ITO (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.03 in

HNL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1031 · ITO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?