AS 1143 · HNL → LIH

departs 6:08 PM HT · arrives 6:49 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 6pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

LIH (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1143 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?