AS 1163 · HNL → LIH

departs 7:32 PM HT · arrives 8:25 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.09 in

LIH (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1163 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?