AS 1166 · HNL → OGG

departs 4:22 PM HT · arrives 5:15 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.66 in

OGG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1166 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?