Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1183 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

AS 1183 · HNL → LIH

departs 9:15 AM HT · arrives 9:56 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 9am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

LIH (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1183 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?