AS 1322 · STS → SEA

departs 5:32 PM PT · arrives 7:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

STS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1322 · STS → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?