AS 1326 · SFO → SAN

departs 5:11 PM PT · arrives 6:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1326 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?