Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1358 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:09 AM PT, ETA 7:34 AM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1358 · SMF → SEA

took off 6:09 AM PT · expected to land 7:34 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SMF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1358 · SMF → SEA

Odds over time