AS 1373 · SAN → SEA

departs 4:51 PM PT · arrives 7:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1373 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?