Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1389 LANDED 2:33 PM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1389 · BUR → SEA

took off 12:23 PM PT · landed 2:33 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at BUR that day

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1389 · BUR → SEA

Odds over time