AS 1406 · LAX → SFO

departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 3:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1406 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?