AS 1436 · SEA → ANC

departs 2:34 PM PT · arrives 5:21 PM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1436 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?