AS 1449 · SAN → SJC

departs 9:23 PM PT · arrives 10:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1449 · SAN → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?