AS 1450 · SAN → SFO

departs 3:39 PM PT · arrives 5:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1450 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?