Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1464 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AS 1464 · OAK → SEA

departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 5:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1464 · OAK → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?