AS 1472 · ANC → SEA

departs 3:58 PM AKT · arrives 8:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.16 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1472 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?