AS 1477 · BNA → PDX

departs 5:13 PM CT · arrives 8:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1477 · BNA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?