Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1512 · SEA → FAI

departs 11:27 PM PT · arrives 2:15 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 11pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1512 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?