Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1518 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1518 · ANC → SEA

departs 6:31 PM AKT · arrives 11:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ 6pm departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.64 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1518 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?