Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1535 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1535 · ANC → JFK

departs 8:04 PM AKT · arrives 7:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ 8pm departures from ANC are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1535 · ANC → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?