AS 1536 · PDX → SEA

departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 12:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1536 · PDX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?