Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1537 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 1537 · ANC → JNU

departs 4:19 PM AKT · arrives 6:01 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into JNU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

JNU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1537 · ANC → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?