Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1609 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1609 · ANC → PDX

departs 4:09 PM AKT · arrives 8:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1609 · ANC → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?