Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1708 LANDED 8:14 AM PT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1708 · PHX → SAN

took off 7:16 AM MT · landed 8:14 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1708 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time