Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1709 LANDED 10:31 AM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1709 · PDX → SMF

took off 9:25 AM PT · landed 10:31 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ PDX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1709 · PDX → SMF

Odds over time