Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1825 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1825 · ORD → ANC

departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 1:42 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.09 in

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1825 · ORD → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?