AS 1867 · SEA → PDX

departs 9:06 PM PT · arrives 10:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1867 · SEA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?