AS 204 · FAI → ANC

departs 10:01 AM AKT · arrives 11:15 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAI

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↓ 10am departures from FAI are usually not late

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 204 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?