Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 212 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 212 · SFO → ANC

departs 7:47 PM PT · arrives 11:41 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 212 · SFO → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?