AS 224 · ADQ → ANC

departs 7:01 AM AKT · arrives 8:00 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ADQ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ANC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 224 · ADQ → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?