AS 233 · ANC → SEA

departs 5:04 PM AKT · arrives 9:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 233 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?