AS 252 · ANC → OTZ

departs 9:02 AM AKT · arrives 10:48 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at OTZ more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OTZ?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 9am departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into OTZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.16 in

OTZ (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 252 · ANC → OTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to OTZ?