AS 257 · ANC → ADK

took off 11:26 AM AKT · expected to land 1:17 PM HDT (scheduled 11:24 AM AKT → 1:31 PM HDT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ADK more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ADK?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at ADK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↓ 11am departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ ADK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.53 in

ADK (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 257 · ANC → ADK

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADK?