Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2629 LANDED 5:48 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 2629 · SBD → IAH

took off 1:11 PM PT · landed 5:48 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBD

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2629 · SBD → IAH

Odds over time