AS 268 · ANC → SEA

departs 6:04 AM AKT · arrives 10:26 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 268 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?