AS 304 · SEA → DEN

departs 12:44 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 304 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?