AS 330 · ABQ → SEA

took off 3:31 PM MT · expected to land 5:05 PM PT (scheduled 2:43 PM MT → 4:55 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.16 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 330 · ABQ → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?